Covid19

[MadMansGun]

 

[Fotogen]

19 minutes ago, Grey Cloud said:

And you know for a fact that this guy is a surgeon and not some publicity seeking ego. Oh wait. He's wearing a surgeon's gown so he must really be a surgeon. If a surgeon in this country came up with anything like this they would be struck off.

You could also ask yourself what a surgeon would know about catching a virus that the virologists don't.

He calls himself The World's #1 Weight Loss Surgeon, Dr. Duc Vuong.

 

Totaly expert. The World's #1.

[Grey Cloud]

24 minutes ago, Bazinga said:

Including the fact that this is much more serious than your usual flu.

No shit, Sherlock. Come on, you don't need some tit on youtube to tell you that.

 

21 minutes ago, Fotogen said:

He calls himself The World's #1 Weight Loss Surgeon, Dr. Duc Vuong.

 

Totaly expert. The World's #1.

Oh right. And a weight-loss surgeon, whatever crucial job that is, has his finger on the pulse of all the latest data on this virus does he?

 

 

[Jazzman]

1 hour ago, Bazinga said:

I think analyzing statistics isn't his strong suit though. He keeps talking about 10% deaths in Italy and stuff like that without even knowing the number of infected there.

It's not like you could just take the official number and do the math, testing and reporting has to be very extensive for that to make sense.

So this part is alarmist and a little idiotic.

The 10% deaths in Italy are the case-fatality rate, 10% of the confirmed infected died. Today that case-fatality rate is (100% / 92,472 total cases x 10,023 total deaths) = 10.84%. That's a terrible Covid-19 world record. The causes are manifold, ranging from an (upside-down) 'old' population pyramid over a hopelessly outdated medical care system to inappropriate (too little, too late) state measurements at the onset of the pandemic on site in Italy.

[Corsayr]

1 hour ago, Grey Cloud said:

Oh wait. He's wearing a surgeon's gown so he must really be a surgeon.

There is an XKCD for everything! ?

 

Spoiler

 

[KoolHndLuke]

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-resource-center

 

"One report, published in February 2020, claimed that chloroquine had been used in more than 100 patients in China who had COVID-19. The scientists stated that their results demonstrated that chloroquine is superior to the control treatment in inhibiting the worsening of pneumonia, improving lung imaging findings, eliminating the virus from the body, and shortening the duration of the disease." It seems that some drugs that we already have may be effective in fighting covid 19.

[woodsman30]

Everyone is an expert ....use the blame game ect.... to what end? There is a much larger picture here ...you are not seeing the forest from the trees human nature I guess.

Where I am from we have a saying it goes " never let a good crisis go to waste".  There is also the magic trick watch this hand pay no mind to the other.... but I digress.

[Grey Cloud]

39 minutes ago, Corsayr said:

There is an XKCD for everything! 

 

That Doc Duc guy is a glorified butcher. How many patients due you think he will be getting during this crisis? So he has an idea "I'll make a bullshit video and stick it on youtube to keep my profile in view".

[Grey Cloud]

52 minutes ago, Jazzman said:

That's a terrible Covid-19 world record.

No, that's terrible maths. "100% / 92,472 total cases x 10,023 total deaths" doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

[Grey Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Alkpaz said:

 

More bullshit pessimism.

The north of Italy appears to be taking the brunt of the virus. Most of the agricultural is in the south. Unless this thing gets much, much worse then nobody in western Europe is likely to starve. Shortages probably, starvation probably not.

[KoolHndLuke]

56 minutes ago, Alkpaz said:

 

Yeah, it's going to happen in some places where they are hardest hit. For every vid or story of that shit, though, I could counter them with plenty of examples of people helping in whatever way they can.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/spaniards-find-beauty-helping-covid-19-crisis-200319105933362.html

 

" Hundreds of volunteers in Spain's capital Madrid are offering to bring medicine or groceries to elderly and sick people who live in their districts so they do not have to leave their homes and risk catching the coronavirus."

 

"More than 9,000 retired Army medical personnel respond to call for assistance with coronavirus pandemic"- https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/9000-retired-army-medical-personnel-respond-armys-call/story?id=69833949

[Jazzman]

43 minutes ago, Grey Cloud said:

No, that's terrible maths. "100% / 92,472 total cases x 10,023 total deaths" doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

Well, kiddo, I'll try to make it easier for you.

If you have 1 bucket with 2 gallons and 1 bucket with 4 gallons and I steal 3 gallons from you, how many buckets... uh... gallons I mean do you have lost in percentage terms?

 

The solution is in the spoiler:

Spoiler

100% / 6 gallons x 3 gallons stolen = 50% gallons lost (the number of buckets left is still the same tho)

 

[Grey Cloud]

5 minutes ago, Jazzman said:

Well, kiddo, I'll try to make it easier for you.

If you have 1 bucket with 2 gallons and 1 bucket with 4 gallons and I steal 3 gallons from you, how many buckets... uh... gallons I mean do you have lost in percentage terms?

 

The solution is in the spoiler:

  Reveal hidden contents

100% / 6 gallons x 3 gallons stolen = 50% gallons lost (the number of buckets left is still the same tho)

 

When you find yourself in a hole, it is best to stop digging.

It is 6 gallons - 3 gallons = 3 gallons. You do not multiply anything. Nor do you divide 100% by anything. You cannot divide a percentage.

[Jazzman]

20 minutes ago, Grey Cloud said:

When you find yourself in a hole, it is best to stop digging.

It is 6 gallons - 3 gallons = 3 gallons. You do not multiply anything. Nor do you divide 100% by anything. You cannot divide a percentage.

 

We need the percentage of total deaths per 100 infected, not the total deaths cos that number we know already.  So...

You have no idea how deep the rabbit hole goes you're tumbling down right now for all to see.  This nonsense is over now!

[Corsayr]

But however you do that math that answer (10.8%) has one major flaw

 

It assumes nobody else will die. 

 

Based on information that we know, the death rate is 47.7% (in Italy)

 

It is not likely to stay that high, but of the 22,407 cases that have reached a conclusion (Recovered or dead) 47.7% are dead. 

 

of course tracking deaths is easier than tracking recovered, and it is more likely we are way closer to knowing how many actual deaths as opposed to actual recoveries. 

 

But at least that number has the advantage of being accurate based on what we "know". No one uses that one because it is scary as fuck... 

 

the 10.8% number is a pipe dream that (as mentioned before) makes an unrealistic assumption. 

[Grey Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Tyrant99 said:

 

1/92,472*10,023 = 10.84%

 

So it's correct.

 

You can also just do: 10,023/92,472 to get the same answer with 1 less step which is my preferred way, but whatever floats your boat.

No it is nonsense. You cannot multiply the number of cases by the number of deaths. The deaths are already part of the number of cases. You would have to subtract the number of deaths from the number of cases and then convert the numbers of deaths into a percentage of the number of cases.

 

6 minutes ago, Tyrant99 said:

1/92,472*10,023 = 10.84%

92,472 x10,023 = 926,846,856

 

1/926,846,856 = I don't know what planet you live on but here on Earth, dividing 1 by 926 million does not equal 10.84% or any percentage as you have not converted anything to a percentage.

 

14 minutes ago, Tyrant99 said:

You can also just do: 10,023/92,472

10,023 / 92,472 = 0.1083895665715027

And that isn't a percentage either.

 

The pair of you need to put your shoes and socks back on and learn to at least use a calculator.

[Corsayr]

2 minutes ago, Grey Cloud said:

10,023 / 92,472 = 0.1083895665715027

And that isn't a percentage either.

but that is a percent.

 

it is 10.83895665715017%

[KoolHndLuke]

[Grey Cloud]

7 minutes ago, Corsayr said:

but that is a percent.

 

it is 10.83895665715017%

Converted to a percentage it may well be. As the notation was presented it is not.

10,023 is 10.84% of 92,472.

10,023 / 92,472 is not 10.84%

 it is 0.1083895665715027

[Corsayr]

2 minutes ago, Grey Cloud said:

Converted to a percentage it may well be. As the notation was presented it is not.

10,023 is 10.84% of 92,472.

10,023 / 92,472 is not 10.84%

 it is 0.1083895665715027

But 0.108 is the decimal expression of 10.8% 

 

I guess I am not seeing where you are going with this? 

[Grey Cloud]

1 minute ago, Tyrant99 said:

.108 isn't a percentage??

A percentage of what?

[xesfer]

Italy's healthcare system was regarded, by World Health Organization's ranking, as the 2nd best in the world after France. And it is still one of the best.

The virus hit the country starting from the north, that is the more developed and rich part of Italy.

One month ago there were a few detected cases and now the only Lombardy region has about 40.000 detected infected people and the dead are 6.000 (only today 542 people died in Lombardy). 

The Civil Protection estimates that the undetected infected are at least 10 times as much.

Field hospitals have been set up, so ICU beds in Lombardy are now 1,600, but today there are already 1,319 patients recovered in ICU (Intensive Care Unit), and 11,152 hospitalized non-ICU patients.

If the trend continues like this, in 10-15 days there will no longer be the opportunity to assist patients who need to be intubated. And this will happen despite the regional exchange cross-system (people who need a IC treatment are sent to hospitals that still have intensive care facilities available in other Regions).    

Moreover, already 50 doctors died and over 6,400 health workers are infected.

The Government has called retired doctors and newly educated ones into service and launched calls to hire additional medical and paramendic staff. China, Russia and Cuba too sent some medical aid and this was very appreciated.  

Doctors and healthcare personnel are working for 12-18 hours every day, 7 days a week, and often without enough personal protective equipment for all of them.

The virus mainly kills the elderly and people with previous pathologies, but not only them. Even young or middle-aged people are affected and some of them develop symptoms that need intensive care treatment and the help of respiratory machines too. And when the ICU seats will be all "sold out" it will mean that an elderly one will have to be sacrificed to make way for a younger one. And this really sucks.

For the country the worst is probably yet to come, because the South has not enough hospital resources and the lockdown came too late and was not taken too seriously by the population. And this is probably the tip of the iceberg. because afterwards the economic recession and the related consequences will come and go on for years.

Be careful and Good luck to everyone.

[Bazinga]

2 hours ago, Jazzman said:

The 10% deaths in Italy are the case-fatality rate, 10% of the confirmed infected died. Today that case-fatality rate is (100% / 92,472 total cases x 10,023 total deaths) = 10.84%. That's a terrible Covid-19 world record. The causes are manifold, ranging from an (upside-down) 'old' population pyramid over a hopelessly outdated medical care system to inappropriate (too little, too late) state measurements at the onset of the pandemic on site in Italy.

Sure.

That's the math. But it's flawed because that case fatality rate is relative to the known cases, not to all the actual Covid19 infections.

And we know that Italy tested too little too late. So even if they ramped that up by now they might still only catch 10% or less of the actual cases.

Which would bring the actual death rate down to 1%, still ten times as much as the seasonal flu.

 

But all that is just speculation, we actually don't know shit.

But we do know that in countries with very extensive testing like South Korea and Germany the death rate is rather low so far. Probably a mix of a better representation of the actual infection rate, the ICUs not being flooded with critical cases and of the better containment so it doesn't spread to high risk groups.

But we'll see, the next week will tell more.

It would have been great if the country this originated in wasn't such an Orwellian nightmare that can't be trusted on anything. Then we would have better data right now. Italy is a warning though, but again, thanks to their pathetic early response to this their data isn't too useful either.

[Jazzman]

It's hardly surprising that in some Western countries decision making takes that long even when time is running out.  Just look at our convo as of late.

 

I just want to add that it takes some three weeks for the infected to die in the final stage but much, much longer to be totally recovered, especially from serious/critical cases. Hence the total deaths lag for some three weeks behind the total cases in the officially used case-fatality rate. Meaning that even when one has no new cases from today on, the number of total deaths will grow for the next three weeks, thus increasing the case-fatality rate to some extent.

 

53 minutes ago, Bazinga said:

Sure.

That's the math. But it's flawed because that case fatality rate is relative to the known cases, not to all the actual Covid19 infections.

You mean, of the hidden cases only the finally hospitalized serious/critical cases would enter the official statistics and thus falsifying the official case-fatality rate? That's true.

[sickboy791]

We Need A Cure!