Covid19

[Corsayr]

1 hour ago, Tyrant99 said:

Yes, the duration of the disease is a factor and it takes a long time before it resolves. Germany for instance has only had 15% of it's total cases resolved as of today, the US has had even less at around 4.4% case resolution, Italy has had 24.2% resolution. There's also the situation of testing more seriously sick people than not, which will skew the numbers higher.

 

Another thing to consider is those currently in serious/critical condition as ~ half of those people seem to be dying. Germany currently has 3% in critical, and their death rate has gone from 0.37% a week ago to 0.69% as of yesterday, and death rates have been creeping up across the board.

 

Anyway, there's a lot of variables, many of which we don't yet know, so it will be impossible to pin down before we have the data. I do think 1% may be a bit too optimistic though considering how hospitals are getting swamped and how many people are ending up on ventilators and in critical condition. There's also the secondary effects of ICU beds being taken so people may have trouble getting treatment if they have other life-threatening medical issues, and yes, economic fallout, which will cause deaths as well. Tally it all up, and it's a pretty shitty situation.

I think the number to beat right now is 

 

Global total deaths / (Global total deaths + Global total recovered)

 

or 18%

 

it is artificially high to be sure, but it offers the most actual data over the largest sample size. 

 

 

[gregathit]

3 minutes ago, Tyrant99 said:

Btw... Have you guys seen this stuff? A friend of mine showed it to me today.

From some batshit crazy corner of the internet...

http://vjmpublishing.nz/?p=18242

I......am at a total loss for words after reading that.  I don't what to say other than WTF?

Wow, you were definitely right about it being bat shit crazy.  ROFL!!!

[Corsayr]

13 minutes ago, Tyrant99 said:

Btw... Have you guys seen this stuff? A friend of mine showed it to me today.

 

From some batshit crazy corner of the internet...

 

http://vjmpublishing.nz/?p=18242

 

 

OMG that totally reminded me of this!

 

Best line, "How have I not heard about this??"

"Let me ask you something, do you have cable?"

"No I just do Netflix."

"Ya, so this is what has been happening on cable."

Spoiler

 

 

[Corsayr]

20 minutes ago, Tyrant99 said:

Yeah, I think ultimately you're right, in the end, that's the number that we need to get under control.

and on the plus side it is a metric that rewards governments for more comprehensive testing.

 

As we get closer to knowing the Actual on all cases we will get a better number for actual recoveries which will reduce that percentage. 

 

 

[KoolHndLuke]

This was a great idea and could be very useful given how we're probably going to be living from now on. Wonder if it had any further development? https://www.mobihealthnews.com/news/asia-pacific/detecting-real-biological-viruses-smartphone

 

"A researcher from the University of Tokyo is working on a portable, low-cost, battery-powered device that pairs with a smartphone which can scan biological samples for real viruses."

 

 

 

 

[27X]

4 hours ago, Tyrant99 said:

 

From some batshit crazy corner of the internet...

you mean 4chan? Because they've done this for every outbreak.

 

 

 

it'sfunnywhenithappenstosomeoneelse.jpg

 

[KoolHndLuke]

I know this is deadly serious, but, it doesn't hurt to make a little fun of it.

 

[s.kirmish]

8 hours ago, Corsayr said:

I think the number to beat right now is 

 

Global total deaths / (Global total deaths + Global total recovered)

 

or 18%

 

it is artificially high to be sure, but it offers the most actual data over the largest sample size. 

 

 

It really struck me as weird how the official numbers were represented in the media, where they only ever compared the total cases to total deaths, as if that would be indication of anything. Are they intentionally misleading, or is it just that all these social science majors have stereotypically (and often even proudly) failed math, I wonder sometimes.

The same thing has happened with SARS, where they in the beginning reported death rates of 1.8%, but then it rose. 2.7%. 3.8%. Over 7... . What was happening? Panic was about. Did the virus mutate and suddenly grow more deadly?

Of course not. They committed the same beginner mistake where they included fresh new cases into the total estimation, even though those didn't have the time to be decided. (and with "they" I mean pretty much all of western media) If I infect twice the number of people, the death rate suddenly drops to half. Glorious journalist mafs.

The real death rate of SARS was about 10%, and you could have calculated it pretty accurately during the outbreak by simply counting the resolution of every case after it had passed the critical line, where you would either be dead or eventually recovering.

 

The same thing could be done here. Covid-19 either gets critical or not at about week 2, and life or death is decided during week 3. If you were just to calculate after the quoted formula, you would come up with a large overestimation for the death rate instead now, because it takes longer to recover than to reach the life or death decision moment. (I know you know this btw. . ?)

So to get the most accurate picture, one would simply have to count all the cases condition after they passed week 3.

In formula:

 

Global deaths / (Global deaths + patients after week 3 + recovered)

 

 

..Well, and of course this is still an overestimation if you consider all the people currently untested (and over week 3) or showing no symptoms to begin with, but we can't do much about that. If you want to understand your chances after getting tested, above formula will provide the best estimation.

Why this is not used more, I have no idea... .

[Grey Cloud]

From the legendary British satirical magazine Private Eye

 

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/news

 

[Grey Cloud]

15 hours ago, Tyrant99 said:

What percentage is .108 to 1? It's 10.8%. That's how it works. This is 3rd grade math.

Fair play, I admit I was wrong on this. Your way of doing it is nothing like the way I was taught at school (admittedly a very long time ago). Your way looks totally alien to me so I think I'll stick with mine. ?

[Corsayr]

5 hours ago, s.kirmish said:

Global deaths / (Global deaths + patients after week 3 + recovered)

If we had the patients after week 3 handy that would be a good "sanity check"

 

So I would need either that, or a good source for new cases per day over the last 3 weeks (If I had the 2nd I could use the historical data I have which is basically a daily shot of below) to calculate how many were at or beyond the 3 week mark.

 

Spoiler

 

Unfortunately Total confirmed cases / total deaths / total recovered doesn't provide a mathematical wedge to pull out aging stats. (at least not one I can think of)

[Grey Cloud]

Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden's unusual response to coronavirus

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

 

"We who are adults need to be exactly that: adults. Not spread panic or rumours," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said in a televised address to the nation last weekend.

 

Dr Emma Frans says history will be the judge of which politicians and scientists around Europe have made the best calls so far.

"Nobody really knows what measurements will be the most effective," she says. "I'm quite glad that I'm not the one making these decisions".

[KoolHndLuke]

New global workforce 2021-

 

[s.kirmish]

1 hour ago, Corsayr said:

Unfortunately Total confirmed cases / total deaths / total recovered doesn't provide a mathematical wedge to pull out aging stats. (at least not one I can think of)

Yupp, especially since it has been shown how many cases come out of the shadows sometimes. I just looked up today how the US suddenly had 400 confirmed covid deaths at the 22nd, even though there were only about 500 identified cases 2 weeks earlier.(which would be the time of first symptoms)

So new cases per day in itself is not a reliable reference for the 3-week-cases count at all.

 

If they would do a little more though, we could really work something out. It wouldn't be too hard for example to just go around and collect information about the people who died. When were they identified with covid? Early? Later?

Are people with mild symptoms identified more early or later? How many of those do we see?

By building an offset of these two and mixing the data in proportion, you could get an actual good approximation, that is again just short of all those people who have mild or no symptoms, and don't seek a doctor.

You wouldn't have to collect information about all the cases ever. Just a representative measure. Nobody is doing it though. ...Well, they are doing it at Robert Koch Institute in Germany apparently, but inconclusive, even though it shouldn't be this hard. (probably is hard if you only work with relatively young German data, but I don't know)

 

 

Even so, the current way of reporting it, is just nonsense in its totality. If they are going to just make up some arbitrary mortality rate that they know is highly inaccurate (by up to factor 500% !), they might as well not say anything at all.

 

54 minutes ago, Grey Cloud said:

"We who are adults need to be exactly that: adults. Not spread panic or rumours," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said in a televised address to the nation last weekend.

 

Dr Emma Frans says history will be the judge of which politicians and scientists around Europe have made the best calls so far.

"Nobody really knows what measurements will be the most effective," she says. "I'm quite glad that I'm not the one making these decisions".

"History will be the judge of which politicians [were right]." This is kind of a sickening thing to say, or not? Sure, let those people in power gamble with thousands of lives.

A clear risk situation was put forward. Even it was really in question whether this was true or not, the sheer fact that it might come true should be absolutely enough to take precautions. ...It isn't even in question though, because people die (a lot), and the spread is real and studied.

Neither were those in power elected to do this, nor are they qualified to make these decisions (against expressed advice of health experts and international epidemiologists no less), but I guess double or nothing, eh?

 

The article also says, that the decision and the government has high approval among the population. Sweden just keeps inventing methods to get rid of itself it seems.

 

 

...Come to think of it, the reign of the CCP is challenged under this crisis' strain, and all the more authoritarian leaning countries pretty much suffer from the same issue: They have this "strong man" display need to legitimate their rule, so they have to decide to either admit powerlessness and do what they can to protect the population from the virus, which then risks their position as the country inevitably falters economically. Or they keep up the facade and let everything run as usual to be safe from the wolves for as long as they still can. (...The CCP for example basically just greenlit the next wave of infections as they saw more threat to their rule from hampered economy than continued virus spread)

 

Although the price is high, maybe it will at least cut through the propaganda and show these faces to the affected populations there.

[Grey Cloud]

33 minutes ago, s.kirmish said:

"History will be the judge of which politicians [were right]." This is kind of a sickening thing to say, or not? Sure, let those people in power gamble with thousands of lives.

I don't see it like that at all. This is a new and unexpected situation for everyone across the globe. Governments are reacting as best they can with the best information they can get. No one has a 100% guaranteed plan which will work perfectly and it is being ignored by politicians.

Only 20/20 hindsight will show which were good ideas and which were not so good. Meanwhile governments have to do the best they can with the information and resources at their disposal.

Sweden is one of the most liberal (in the European sense) countries in the world and its people one of the best educated. Sweden is about as far away from authoritarian as you can get.

If the Swedes are happy enough with the situation who are you to judge? What exactly are you saying anyway? The Swedish government is authoritarian for not ordering a lockdown? The authoritarian government, i.e. China, which did order a lockdown was wrong to do so?

 

Which country are you from that has such a perfect response to the crisis?

[KoolHndLuke]

2 hours ago, s.kirmish said:

Sure, let those people in power gamble with thousands of lives.

I suppose people will scrutinize future leaders much more closely from now on, huh? It's actually kind of hard to judge who will be the best leader for what situation since some are better at handling certain aspects of their jobs than others. Potentially sacrificing some here to save more over all is not an easy decision for anyone to make. Right now I'm just glad that most leaders even seem to give a fuck about something besides their political career and you can thank covid 19's complete disregard for race, religion, age, social status, political affiliation, etc. They're worried just like the rest of us.

 

In my experience, the best leaders are usually the reluctant ones since they understand the crushing responsibility they might inherit. And most modern leaders didn't sign up with this shit in mind for their people.

[Guest]

 

[Guest]

и интернет и тв завалены этим вирусом,говорят разное дез.инфы много,винят американцев и китайцев,никто не знает откуда он взялся,возможно изза таяния ледников,но толдыченье уже задолбало.

[s.kirmish]

2 hours ago, Kokan said:

 

For everyone that doesn't speak German: This doctor claims that there are no real indications that covid-19 is anything different than the regular flu. Yes.

If I can believe the summary and his last words, all these corona cases simply exist because there are now tests for this, and before they had just been grouped together with all other flu cases.

No argument about how this hypothesis explains things like the death wave and coffin trains in northern Italy, or the fact that so many people suddenly need life saving breathing support machines (after only getting "the flu" ostensibly).

People in the comments are like - "finally someone says the truth." "we have been blinded by fearmongering media." "wake up sheeple" essentially.

 

 

This is... pretty unwise. So, these kinds of videos have been around since it all became known in January. Deniers that is. There are always people that would rather wish reality away than to accept it. ...Eventually reality gets to you however. Comforting lies will not help when this knocks on your door. In fact, such people always find it harder to cope, since on top of whatever unpretty reality they must face, they also have to fight themselves out of the mental trench they dug themselves into. E.g. people who truly believe themselves to be chosen of some sort (by religion, narcissism, or whatever), have to fight serious shock when they are forced to face that they are nothing special.

I get it. It seems like things are getting easier this way. Until recently, my own grandmother tried to rationalize and soft talk this for two weeks with mantras like "many cases in italy are just misdiagnosed, and they died of something else". It calms the nerves to seemingly get good news. However, you also miss out on the opportunity to steel yourself for when the hard times actually arrive.

In short, even though it seems like soothing balm, you would in reality only make it harder on yourself in the long run. There is this famous quote like "Every lie you tell yourself incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later the debt is paid.".

 

 

5 hours ago, Grey Cloud said:

I don't see it like that at all. This is a new and unexpected situation for everyone across the globe. Governments are reacting as best they can with the best information they can get. No one has a 100% guaranteed plan which will work perfectly and it is being ignored by politicians.

Only 20/20 hindsight will show which were good ideas and which were not so good. Meanwhile governments have to do the best they can with the information and resources at their disposal.

 

 

Spoiler

Which country are you from that has such a perfect response to the crisis?

Germany. For some reason we have the by far lowest mortality rate in this on earth, with "only" about 0.6% I believe (after the crooked official calculation method obviously), which is even much less than our neighbors with equal or better health treatment (like Netherlands) or equally old population.

However, I definitely don't want to use this as a pro German reaction argument, because so far it is quite a mystery to the press and experts all around why the pandemic is so mild here, despite infecting many. The most convincing point so far was that we had an extreme percentage of the current infected in the low risk groups between 20-49. It might be that our elders are better at sheltering themselves (although my personal observations tend to disagree?), or maybe there is more distance between older and young people here culturally (they never live together with younger family for example), I don't know.

 

I do know however, that if you don't contain a virus that doubles infections every 4-5 days currently, we would naively look at total infection here in Germany in pretty exactly 6 weeks time. (of course, infection rate will go down once less healthy people are around, so it would be more)

These numbers are not reliable, since the effect of the recent quarantine is not well reflected, and most of the new cases are infections from before, so we might actually stall this thing, because the growth percentage did consistently go down.(record low today)

 

Now, imagine you didn't even quarantine or enforce any restrictions on social contact, so the doubling rate would be 3 days. All these ten thousands of cases are exactly the result of that. The virus was under the radar for about 6-8 weeks in western countries. All these are the result of doing nothing from that time span.

I looked up Swedens numbers and dealings with the virus, well, and actually, I don't know what this bbc article was supposed to be about. As of 27th of march, large social gatherings are banned, and many other restrictions are in place, similar to those here. It could be more, but for Sweden, which consistently only had about 10% geometric growth a day, it seems adequate. (puts their clock to at least 84 days from now)

 

Then I will withhold from further comment on the dealings with their people, because this is actually right for their situation. This is why you must look at numbers before media.?

Quote

Sweden is about as far away from authoritarian as you can get.

If the Swedes are happy enough with the situation who are you to judge? What exactly are you saying anyway? The Swedish government is authoritarian for not ordering a lockdown?

Ok, maybe to stifle misunderstanding in short bullet points what I saw:

- The risk is real and proven.

- Economic and even some personal damage is reversible or at least amendable, death is not. (comparing death penalty with prison sentence seems relevant here)

- If you decide to take the risk under such conditions, you are draconic indeed.(it is not even a "risk", since people would definitely die) Also to the rest of the world thanks to increased mutation risk to all.

 

However, as proven by numbers, the third point was invalid, as they matched the measure quality of other western countries, so its fine.

 

Sweden politically: I used to be a bigger fan of Sweden as a child, and bought into their progressive attitude. I am still very positive towards all other northern countries, especially Norway, but also Denmark, which I both hold up as standards of a better Germany to my friends. (might as well throw Netherlands in as well?) Sweden however has committed various sins that have put them off the rails of traditional benevolent liberalism. When one of your heroes fall it is worse than a villain; it is betrayal. I won't go into details, because it is very offtopic for now. Save to say I could believe their government would actually disregard their citizen in this way. Glad this at least proved to be wrong.

 

4 hours ago, KoolHndLuke said:

In my experience, the best leaders are usually the reluctant ones since they understand the crushing responsibility they might inherit.

Give power to those who don't want it. A well known, although mostly disregarded wisdom, that I wish would be considered more.

You know, in Ancient Greece, they already saw the problem with the sophists, and considered that a career politician was something to be avoided. They had ideas (not put into practice though) of simply raising people into office randomly to circumvent this phenomenon, where those chosen would hopefully grow into their responsibility.

Well, probably not the best solution, but interesting thought to develop on.

[jackcee]

It's all just a hyped-up hoax so Trump can do what he wants without the press looking up his skirt all the time.  I thought the shit would start a war, like all the other Republican pressies do. But "drama queen" has played out to be much a better dog-wagger than anything the Pentagon could ever whip up.

 

Unless you're actually dying, stop worrying and enjoy the Ides of March holiday.

[FauxFurry]

1 hour ago, jackcee said:

It's all just a hyped-up hoax so Trump can do what he wants without the press looking up his skirt all the time.  I thought the shit would start a war, like all the other Republican pressies do. But "drama queen" has played out to be much a better dog-wagger than anything the Pentagon could ever whip up.

 

Unless you're actually dying, stop worrying and enjoy the Ides of March holiday.

Shutting down the economy and giving things away for free to the people is what an Arch Capitalist always wanted to do? That theory might need a little bit of a re-work.

[KoolHndLuke]

2 hours ago, s.kirmish said:

Germany. For some reason we have the by far lowest mortality rate in this on earth, with "only" about 0.6%

Because you are testing many more people, not just the ones that are showing symptoms.- https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-why-coronavirus-death-rate-lower-italy-spain-test-healthcare-2020-3 Germans are very thorough I have noticed.

 

Other countries, including the US, are only testing the very sick because medical experts believe they are the most contagious and they just can't test as many (or won't). If they were able to test everyone, it would show many, many more infected with this novel (new) coronavirus and the comparative death tolls would fall- looking more like Germany. From what I've read, the reason they are trying to slow this down is so the hospitals don't become overrun with people that don't really need medical assistance. That and there is the possibility that it could mutate into a more deadly strain. That's why they are asking people to stay home and slow the spread as much as possible (flatten the curve). It's not a conspiracy. You can be assured that your country's numbers are fairly accurate and yes, some of the media is blowing this way out of proportion- just like they always do. In the long run, I think medical experts feel this would be the more efficient way to save more lives. The good news in all of this is that covid 19 probably isn't as deadly as we have been led to believe.

 

What's truly amazing to me is that our scientists and medical experts seemed to have been taken completely by surprise, when they should have been very well prepared for just such an event- even a global pandemic. Maybe stop spending all that tax money on military? Just a thought.

 

 

 

[KoolHndLuke]

2 hours ago, Alkpaz said:

Healthy 30yr old, sports guy, non smoker, used gloves and mask. 

That is very strange. I've been sort of sick for a week and half now, but I'm pretty sure it's not covid 19 since even a mild case will put you down for a good week or so. Still, I'm staying home, away from others. I found this vid that explains it pretty well.

 

 

[Grim1968]

I hope everyone one of you is well and in good health during this pandemic. There is a lot of false information out there right now and it is incredibly difficult to shift through all the garbage that is on the web even from the so called experts... In times like these the number of experts double, its like they crawl out from under a rock or something. Regardless of where we get our information from, one thing should be made clear... This is a deadly virus, not deadly to everybody, but still deadly... yes we as a whole, will beat it, it's not the end of the human species and we will continue living our lives as we did before.... we always do and always have. Many of the so called experts believe this is only round 1, that it will taper off in the summer months and spike again in winter... kind of like the flu virus which is why some believe this is nothing more than the flu on steroids. 100s of people die every year from the flu or flu related symptoms and we have a cure for that!  Im not saying this isnt a serious problem for it is, make no mistakes about it but... life will go on as it did before.

PLEASE... be smart and be safe

[27X]

10 hours ago, KoolHndLuke said:

Because you are testing many more people, not just the ones that are showing symptoms.- https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-why-coronavirus-death-rate-lower-italy-spain-test-healthcare-2020-3 Germans are very thorough I have noticed.

 

Other countries, including the US, are only testing the very sick because medical experts believe they are the most contagious and they just can't test as many (or won't). If they were able to test everyone, it would show many, many more infected with this novel (new) coronavirus and the comparative death tolls would fall- looking more like Germany. From what I've read, the reason they are trying to slow this down is so the hospitals don't become overrun with people that don't really need medical assistance. That and there is the possibility that it could mutate into a more deadly strain. That's why they are asking people to stay home and slow the spread as much as possible (flatten the curve). It's not a conspiracy. You can be assured that your country's numbers are fairly accurate and yes, some of the media is blowing this way out of proportion- just like they always do. In the long run, I think medical experts feel this would be the more efficient way to save more lives. The good news in all of this is that covid 19 probably isn't as deadly as we have been led to believe.

 

What's truly amazing to me is that our scientists and medical experts seemed to have been taken completely by surprise, when they should have been very well prepared for just such an event- even a global pandemic. Maybe stop spending all that tax money on military? Just a thought.

 

 

 

There's a solid chunk of people that knew this was going to happen and happen soon; the CDC has been warning about this since the 90s, and here we is.