Some things really bothered me when I played through Skyrim for the first time one was Delphine and her knowledge of the dragons also her ability to get you into the Embassy. As I worked through the game and many play-through more evidence came to light as every-time I explored new avenues to take and exhausted all dialog and play options and all different levels as so that would not be a factor. 

The findings:

Delphine has inside information directly from the Thalmor and/or Imperials or both I believe she is a double agent. Think not? There was only a small handful of survivors from Helgan Genral Tullius and his small group, Elenwen and her small group. you and what ever solider you saved. How did Delphine know about Helgan? Who told her what happened it was not you.... that leaves two choices period. Here is more fuel to the fire I tried every variant to become dragon born including not talking to her until I find out she has the Horn of the Graybeards and only then I meet her. What is fact in every play-thought looking for evidence all but one I was met with a assassin from the dark Bother-hood. Only after I meet her do I receive a contract on my head and yes this is repeatable and have done so at many levels and paths I could take. I done all DLC complete no dark-brotherhood took every path it is only after I meet her does this happen.... why?

Lets talk about the Thalmor Embassy and how exactly did you ...a complete unknown... waltz right on in. The guest list would have been very tightly controlled and nobody could have just added you on there without the Thalmor allowing it and no a bartender could not have done it. So who exactly did Delphine talk to to get you in there that list is very short. It sure looks like a trap when your there or at the very least a unveiling as to who you are.

So lets talk about Esbern and how the Thalmor now know where he is. It is also of note these Dossier's are just laying around for you to find them

Is it not covenant that Delphine knows the thieves guild and members she would have heard about Esbern no way she did not know and that is why a thieves -guild member was being tortured to give intel. on what was known. Or is that to far of a stretch?

So according to these Dossiers Delphine is enemy number one... really?

So for someone who is such an enemy how is it she owns a Inn the most public place to be found in Skyrim? So we are to believe the Thalmor know about a old man in the very deepest sewers in Riften but she lives  in plain site and they know squat about her.... really?

Also of note Ulfric is considered an asset.... really? Delphine can be seen as an asset as well The whole thing when looked at from a far makes no sense or does it?

Conclusion:

Who benefits in this whole affair that Delphine herself says must happen including the killing of Parthanax? Simple the Admari Dominion

There are only two things not controlled by the Thalmor you Dragon-born and the Dragons the children of Akatosh.

The Dragons are not really seen as a bad thing to the Thalmor but you the one who can kill them is. Delphine has controlled you from day one and continues to control you. Delphine is not what she seems but is a shell of herself who sold out long ago to save her own skin. The evidence shows it is not possible to do what she has done or exist as she does without selling out just as Ulfric himself has... So the real mystery are you a pawn for the Thalmor and don't even know it?

So the Great-war happened between 4th era 171-175 in that time the Empire all but fell and entered into the White-Gold- Concordat

and the Red-guards fought on alone finally a deal was reached with the Second Treaty of Stros M'Kai and the Thalmor retreated out of Hammerfell.

Enter present time 4th era 201.

The evidence:

First is Saadia's age by game standards is would be assumed she is around 40ish. So she would be very young when all of this took place late teens how much would she have known to really give away secrets to the Thalmor? We know that by Kematu's dialog they want to bring her to justice so they been hunting her for 20 plus years really? That and in the middle of a war she somehow met with the Thalmor without being killed trying ....suspect at best there.

Second the Alik'r or so they say.... Why did they get kicked out of Whiterun and one was jailed what exactly did they do?.... Or, did they get booted by association? We know that Talos worship is alive and well in Whiterun so did the guards believe they are in fact part of the Thalmor? This makes the most sense as in game guards are not know for tolerance and crimes are met by sword if resistance is given was one jailed when he spoke a little too much?

Now comes the question of the bandits at Swinders Den we know that bandits are extremely hostile towards anything not considered their own so how did they get in there? Again by association it can be assumed they are in part bandits or at least friendly towards them.... more against Kematu's credibility he claims to be honorable but what honorable man would stand with bloodthirsty bandits when he would know the are killers ...answer : no honorable man would.

The Thalmor are known for underhanded dealings, hate Talos worship, and all around not nice to any who are not them.

So Saadia's story makes the most sense and here is why?

The Thalmor many have claimed would have just sent their own assassins into Whiterun to kill Saadia but that is not true.

The Thalmor could not send their own into Whiterun how many high-elves you see there?..none. Second they could not be associated with it directly as killing a noble from Hammerfell would more than likely break the treaty they have with Hammerfell. The Thalmor could not do it directly again because an assault on a citizen of Whiterun would have sealed the fate as Whiterun is neutral at this point in the war and that could lead them to join the Stormcloaks.

So why then and why now?

Saadia is a Noble but fled Hammerfell when her city fell and she sought refuge and a new life. Saadia found one... sort of until now.

The Thalmor are trying to wrap up loose ends in Skyrim and are actively searching for any who do not stand with them and/or spoke out against them as you will find out later when Esbern comes into play. Saadia is one of them as she actively spoke against them even at the fall of her city. The Thalmor will go to any lengths to get what they desires including hiring mercenaries and traitors as in game evidence shows. So the Alik'r lied to you and need to face your justice .....as only you can save Saadia.

This is the most logical conclusion that can be made if one really looks at in game evidence and lore.

When you first enter Winter-hold you soon relies much is missing and lays at the sea of ghosts coast. What happened? and when? These answers are there if one chooses to look real close at the facts some can be heard from the Winter-hold citizens and the Jarl. They believe the college had something to do with the Great Collapse but that is not what happened in its entirety. The Red mountain erupted in spectacular way creating what is known as The Red Year. The Sea of ghosts was rocked and created massive waves that battered the coast of Skyrim one only has to look at he map to see Winter-hold had no protection from it's wrath. However, the College was spared as was some of the town ...how? There was some powerful forces at work during this time and one person seen it coming..... enter the Augur of Dunlain. Augurs are considered tellers of the future and omens to come... Dunlain was believe where he was from as he is a Breton . The Augur was a Breton with extraordinary skill denied by no one who delved deep into magic and perhaps the "old magic" seen by the Reach-man. We have no proof of when he lived but appears well before the current Arch-mage rein. I believe it to be at the time of the great collapse. The Augur studied restoration magic and is considered to be the best at it.

The Augur of Dunlain did study the old magic as evidence of Reach-man statues in The Midden how deep did he go and how far could he see events before they happened... In his current state he is able to see events in the future as I believe this is a skill he always had even when alive see prior reference. We know Reach-man are powerful wielders of magic and some even cast their own hearts aside to become more than man or mer. Now we are left with hows and whys.

I believe the Augur of Dunlain did see the events of the Red Mountain happen before the actually did. I believe this is what drove him to go into the old magic to find a way to prevent what he saw coming and also seen what he must do. I believe he saw it all transpire in real time and seen the massive waves heading to the very college he called home. This is where I believe he used himself to cast as a ward unlike any seen before that tore the flesh from his very bones. A ward so powerful it protected the college from massive tidal waves from the eruption of the Red Mountain. I believe the magic use was so powerful it consumed his living body and what is left is the form we see today... pure energy. Now this spell would have been seen by all....enter why they think it was the colleges fault. The Augur was able to stop the brunt of the waves but part of the town still fell to the torrents of water. It can be assumed he is now part of the college as without him it would surely collapse.

His story is untold but this makes the most sense as all other theories fall short this matches timelines, characters, and events. The Augur could leave I believe but chooses to stay and protect what he calls home.... this is why he was willing to help you as he knew your story long before your coming to Winter-hold. 

More may come as evidence of the Midden is very ancient.... 

It is referenced Harkon was a mighty king but where?? Could it be he is from Atmora as Nords came from there as he is a Nord. We also know they did not originate at Castle Volkihar as Serana states information about the Castle and it prior owners ... So it can be concluded she was around before they occupied it but events that happen after lead to her being hidden away.  So could it be he left his Kingdom in Atmora  after he slaughtered all in it to become a vampire as supposed a thousand innocents where given as a sacrifice. It could be he had knowledge of the castle as being a King would require trade and trade routes to other areas.... was castle Volkihar a way point from Atmora to High Rock? ( see map ) was that why he choose it for its solitude and being very isolated? So we are left yet with more questions what about the time before his obsession with the prophesy how long was that years, decades, centuries? And the huge elephant in the room when did Serana and her mother become a vampire? Was it shortly after Harkon became one was that also part of the deal but when? I believe Harkon was the first vampire as the origanal vampire Lamae Bal will not work with the times in game or her time frame is misunderstood as she is cited as a first era. Again game = cannon so I go with game time of pre-first era for Harkon.

To be continued soon.....

Before we go deeper let us look at the " prophesy " in game it is stated that Arch-Curate Vyrthur created this prophesy.. So did Vyrthur then create and write an Elder-scroll? By all accounts that is what the evidence points to did Vyrthur have the power to do this? We know he was a direct link to Auri-El

" had the ear of the gods" what power did he have? We know Auri-El is the father of dragons and also " he" ( unknown gender if any) the father of time cited as the first before all else. So where does this lead us... simple really...

Auri-El knows the present, past, and future and would know all that was going to happen there for allowed the " prophesy " be written but why?

Only theory that could work is to right a wrong created by Molag Bal AKA Lord Harkon. Given the location of the " Path to Enlightenment " and the proximity of Castle Volkihar it can be deduced the vampire who infected Arch-Curate Vythur came from there.

Here is where speculation comes in to play: You the Dragon-born are given Auri-El's bow to defeat Harkon the very bow he created and used in battle... The only one who has ever used it. Are you an incarnation with limited memory of Auri-El?..... ( story for another time)

So we concluded the whens and the hows and the reasons behind the whole Harkon story. So the conclusion we have is Lord Harkon gave all including his daughter and wife to Molag Bal for immortality... I believe Serana and Valerica  were part of the deal struck by Harkon and were taken by Molag Bal prior to given Harkon his powers. The evidence shows Merethic Era for this union of Harkon's family with Molag Bal the evidence shows Auri-El had a direct involvement to the undoing of Molag Bal's blight he created. The evidence shown gives a reasonable understanding of the events that took place in ancient times to the present where Harkon's story ends...

Most theories rely on a vanilla game and how you played the first time ....eager to do the main quest line.

Our first mystery is you "Dragon-born" as in the beginning you start with nothing but a carriage ride to your death and left to wonder why? 

You are on a cart heading to Helgan it is summarized that perhaps you came from Cyrodiil and was caught at the border but maybe not? After the fray at Helgan soon followed by the meet and greet in Riverwood you go off to Whiterun.

When meeting Yarl Balgruuf the Greater he's word choice seems to imply he knows who you are or at least knows about you.

There is this line... "There is another thing you could do for me. Suitable for someone of your particular talents, perhaps. Come, let's go find Farengar, my court wizard. He's been looking into a matter related to these dragons and... rumors of dragons."  What talents you just walked from Riverwood hardly a talent is it? More on this in a minute.

In the first day or so of game play you'll be charged with going to Bleak-falls barrow to go against bandits, wolves, and draugr no small task for a simple peasant. Soon after your return to Whiterun you will then be charged with confronting a dragon...your first dragon and eventually you'll win. So it is proven through combat you are not a farmer or a peasant but a sell-sword/spell-sword or mercenary at the very least { simple mage build cannot do this with out use of weapons and armor I've tried numerous times you just don't have the skill or spells you just die } So it seems Yarl Balgruuf was right about your talents... Could it be the Yarl does know about you and what has he heard prior to meeting you? 

Perhaps The Whispering Lady spoke to him as Balgruuf and Farengar have the only keys and know what is on the other side... was knowledge sought out by Balgruuf over the worry of losing his empire? Did Mephala reveal the unseen to him ... is that why he greets you as you are know to him....perhaps.

More to come....